GoldStockMania.com

By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

All bull markets have similarities and all equity bull markets have strong similarities. They go through similar phases. Most bull markets start off slow and then build towards what we like to say is an acceleration into a bubble and potential mania. In last weeks editorial we noted how bull markets, prior to the bubble phase, tend to make major bottoms every three or so years.  Yet, in looking at the present bull market in gold stocks and comparing it to the previous three equity bull markets (Technology, Japan and Gold Stocks) we find stronger and deeper similarities which confirms to us that the gold stocks are in the bull market of our time. Read more…

By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

Gold is in a bull market and so are the gold stocks despite their struggle as a group to outperform Gold. This is nothing new though. We’ve written about this in the past and Steve Saville has before us. Nevertheless, the miners are in a secular bull market and investors need to pick better stocks and ignore the hundreds of losers. The bull market is moving forward but is nowhere close to a bubble nor the speculative zeal we saw in 2006-2007. Thus, it begs the question of what lies ahead and when can we expect the initial stages of a bubble. Read more…

By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

We’ve written about the importance of intermarket analysis. Movements in various sectors and asset classes influence each other. The Treasury market is the largest in the world and affects trends in other markets. Interestingly, Bonds at times move with Gold. In these cases it is due to a safety or flight to quality play and as a result mining equities tend to underperform. Earlier this year, the safety plays were the Swiss Franc, Gold and Bonds. The first two were first to reverse and now Bonds are putting in an important top. The beneficiary of this market shit will be mining equities and equities in general. Read more…

By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

In our most recent commentary we wrote about the relative strength in the gold equities. Gold equities have not only bucked the downtrend in the equity markets but in relative terms are breaking to new highs against equity indices. In the chart below we plot precious metals prices, GDX versus the Morgan Stanley World Index and GDX versus the S&P 500. We highlight how each performed during bear markets. Other than in the crash in 2008, precious metals and the equities have performed quite well during times of struggle for conventional stocks. Read more…

By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

Savvy and experienced market technicans and traders will laud the concept and importance of relative strength. Relative strength analysis can be used on any time frame. On large time frames it can tell us which sectors could be future leaders. On shorter time frames it can also provide insight to the future. In this analysis we examine the relative strength of the gold stocks today and compare it to the past as some important insights can be gleaned. Read more…

By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

In recent months we’ve been talking and writing about a potential acceleration in Gold. The chart said we were close and in all honesty Gold has actually been in a state of gradual acceleration since the 2008 low. Furthermore, we’d noted that in most secular bull markets, accelerations usually begin in the 11th or 12th year and are totally obvious by the end of the 13th year. Given the move of the past five weeks, there is no reason to think otherwise. An acceleration in the bull market has begun and will take Gold to $2000/oz and quite a bit higher in the next 18 months. Read more…

By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

Gold looks fantastic. It is breaking away from a consolidation which could be called a running correction. Two weeks ago Gold broke to a new high. Last week Gold retested the breakout and then advanced to another new high at the end of the week. Its textbook bullish action. Yet the gold shares have really struggled. Read more…

By Toby Connor, GoldScents

On last Friday stocks formed the swing we were looking for to mark the half cycle low. The bottom came on day 5 of the move out of the coil (usually a coil will reverse in 3-5 days). So if the pattern plays out like it normally does we should see the stock market move to new highs. Now for those of you that are playing the Bollinger band crash trade and/or the VTO trade put a stop below Thursday’s intraday low. Technically this is modifying the rules of the trade but there are a couple of warning signs that have sprung up. (More on that in a minute.) Read more…

By Toby Connor, GoldScents

For months and months I’ve been warning investors that the dollar was going to come under extreme pressure sometime this year. I expected it to probably happen in the spring. Many people thought I was nuts. They were sure it was the Euro that would collapse, despite the fact that the EU is doing everything they can to protect their currency while Bernanke is doing everything he can to destroy ours. Read more…

Here is an interesting chart that compares some historical Dow Jones Industrial Average market data from the 1938 crash to our current DIJA market. It looks the Dow is ready to take a dive off of a cliff. The current Dow has pretty much already retraced the historical 1938-1940 data. By my estimates, we should be heading for a 35% market correction somewhere between now and April 2011. Be careful out there, things could a bit rocky… Read more…