GoldStockMania.com

By Toby Connor, GoldScents

I think next week will mark a major turning point in the gold market. Depending on whether the dollar continues higher or turns back down we will either see a resumption of the D-Wave decline or this will just turn into a normal run-of-the-mill intermediate degree correction followed by another leg up in this 2 1/2 year C-wave advance. Read more…

By Toby Connor, GoldScents

On last Friday stocks formed the swing we were looking for to mark the half cycle low. The bottom came on day 5 of the move out of the coil (usually a coil will reverse in 3-5 days). So if the pattern plays out like it normally does we should see the stock market move to new highs. Now for those of you that are playing the Bollinger band crash trade and/or the VTO trade put a stop below Thursday’s intraday low. Technically this is modifying the rules of the trade but there are a couple of warning signs that have sprung up. (More on that in a minute.) Read more…

This is for all you folks out there with retirement accounts in the general stock market. I’ve been warning for many months that the cyclical bull we’ve been in for almost two years is still just a counter trend rally in an ongoing secular bear market. I made that same warning about the last cyclical bull market from `02 to `07. Many people ignored me in November `07 when I said the second leg down in the secular bear had begun. I suspect many people wish they hadn’t. Read more…

By Toby Connor, GoldScents

It has been my contention all along that the Fed would print until something breaks. Once that break occurs we will enter the next leg down in the secular bear market. This time I don’t expect it to be the credit markets, although we will almost certainly have trouble in the municipal and state bond markets. Some may even default. Read more…

By Toby Connor, GoldScents

All markets are subject to the forces of regression. Newton’s basic laws of motion; Action and reaction. At current levels both the S&P and Nasdaq 100 are stretched further above the 200 day moving average that virtually any other time in the last 10 years. Not surprisingly the further a market stretches in one direction the harder it snaps back in the other once the force of regression gets its hooks into the market. Read more…

By Toby Connor, GoldScents

Humans, for whatever reason, tend to project the past into the future. It is an emotional flaw in our genetic makeup. It is also the reason why so many otherwise intelligent people miss the big turning points in the economy and stock market. Read more…

By Toby Connor, GoldScents

I want to discuss something that came up on the blog Friday.  An anonymous poster hinted that we were going to see more gold weakness in the days ahead because big money had to sell their positions.  Folks, big smart money traders don’t sell into weakness.  These kinds of investors don’t think like the typical retail investor who is forever trying to avoid draw downs.  Big money investors take positions based on fundamentals and then they continually buy dips until the fundamentals reverse.  The fundamentals haven’t reversed for gold so I’m confident in saying that smart money isn’t selling its gold, it is using this dip to accumulate. Read more…

By Toby Connor, GoldScents

Just like the stock market, gold runs in cycles (all markets do because the humans that trade these markets go through periods of optimism and periods of pessimism). Read more…

By Toby Connor, GoldScents

In my last article Bear’s Beware I warned that shorts were running the risk of getting caught in an explosive rally as the intermediate cycle was due to bottom. Well, it did bottom and bears have watched their profits quickly evaporate as the market has surged out of the intermediate cycle low. Read more…

By Toby Connor, GoldScents

I’m going to go through some signs that rabid bears might do well to pay attention to because I think the market is very close to a major bottom.  (That doesn’t mean we are guaranteed to make new highs, although we might.  Just that we can probably expect an explosive rally soon, even if it ultimately turns out to be a counter trend rally in an ongoing bear market). Read more…